Afrezza and Tresiba in Russia

Ukraine: My View on the Future

I was asked my view on the situation in Ukraine. I have been privately predicting what will happen for several weeks, fairly successfully. And yes, I can back this with emails between myself and sources in Ukraine.

My short-term view of what will happen in Ukraine is:

The current “new government” in Ukraine: 

  • The current government, and the next (elected May 25) will stay under the sphere of influence of the US/EU/NATO
  • The elections on May 25 will be certified as “valid” by US and EU monitors (as it has the last 2 elections there), will not reflect the will of the people, and will support the US agenda in Ukraine
  • They will continue to exert control over the Ukrainian people through their current “assigning” of their oligarch governors and mayors to cities and regions, to control their agenda
  • They will continue to allow the right-wing Svoboda and Right-Sector groups to terrorize pro-Russians
  • When the new “elections” on May 25 take place, the people will again be under a government they do not support
  • NATO will expand into Ukraine, build the military, and extend the NATO agenda to the borders of Russia (** see “Off Ramps” below)

Crimea vs. Ukraine proper:

  • Crimea will stay under Russia’s influence for the near term
  • Their referendum on March 16 will show majority support for joining Russia (I’d guess close to 76%)
  • The US/EU/Ukraine will continue to not recognize the “new Crimean government”
  • There will be no war between Ukraine and Crimea, Russia and Ukraine, nor the US and anybody
  • The Russians will build a bridge across the Kerch straight

Russia vs. US/EU/NATO:

  •  Ukraine is already in the hands of the US/EU/NATO coalition. It will remain there until Russia gets what it wants
  • Russia will insist on a government structure, and leaders, who respect Russian speakers and disbands the right-wing groups, and no NATO incursion into Ukraine
  • Putin will not march into Ukraine, nor try to take over (more of) the country
  • The US will continue to complain about the illegality of Russia taking control over Crimea
  • Russia will continue to complain about the illegality of the new Ukrainian government, and continue to maintain the right of the people of Crimea selecting who they want to be a part of
  • Russia and the US will continue the tit-for-tat “economic sanctions” against each other, and rhetoric, until they both get a compromise they can both live with, while the EU sits out for the most part

Lustration and Right-Wing:

  • These techniques will continue to be used to intimidate anyone who does not fully support the “new government,” and on through the elections in May
  • The US will continue to deny these tactics are occurring, and the news media will continue to say they see no evidence of this

Note: Lustration is a term aligned with “punishment” in Ukrainian (post coming)

The people:

  • The people of Ukraine will continue to tire of this “new government” and eventually ouster them
  • They will remain calm, and refuse to fight with each other or with Russia
  • The people will tire of the right-wing terrorism going on in the country, and will continue to trust the US/EU less and less as long as they support a) the “new” government, b) do not force true democratic elections, and c) continue to not disarm the right-wing
  • There will be another “peaceful protest” in 2 years
  • They will eventually have a democratically elected government that works – but not for 3 or 4 more governments
  • The people will continue to oppose joining NATO

Let’s see where I am right, and where I am wrong