Ukraine: War With Russia?

We have now gotten to where I can point at this article, where I said that Putin will not march into Ukraine, nor try to take over (more of) the country. Listen to the Western news, and you might disagree.

Who would benefit from a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the resulting war?

Nobody. It would cause a major military conflict between Russia and the US/NATO forces, and obliterate Ukraine as it now exists.

So what is all the war hype about, then?

Russia could certainly take more of Ukraine, but they have “no intention” of invading Ukraine. Depending on who you listen to, Russia has 80,000 to 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border (Ukraine’s estimate), or 30,000 to 40,000 (US/NATO estimate.) I will go with 40,000 since I think US intelligence is a bit more accurate than Ukrainian intelligence, and that just is not enough men to invade Eastern and Southern Ukraine. If Putin intended to invade, he would put a larger force on the border.

They have those troops there for leverage. It keeps the Ukrainians nervous and away from Crimea, and encourages Ukraine to avoid pushing to join NATO. It keeps Eastern and Southern Ukraine thinking about Crimea and them too being backed by Russia. These troops destabilize Ukraine’s interim government. Most of all, it is a way for Russia to negotiate what they really want – keeping NATO from their borders “as the US promised.”

What does the US gain by continuing to insist that 40,000 men might invade a country that has 139,000+ military members, and the backing of the US/NATO? They keep the international community on their side, get to continue to distort Russia and misrepresent Putin, and they keep their reason to expand NATO to Russia’s southern border.

After all, the US and NATO tell Russia that it is destabilizing to have Russian troops on their own territory, but near Ukraine. Russia has made a small gesture of reconciliation and laid out a potential diplomatic solution, which tells more of Putin’s plans than anything. But NATO says it is not enough. All while planning military exercises in Ukraine, near the Crimean border and in the Black Sea, and while increasing aircraft and troops in Romania, on Ukraine’s border.

Seems the US/NATO kettle is calling the Russian pot black.

What does Ukraine gain by inflating the numbers so much? They keep their people scared. Throw in the armed right-wing militia running around the country that the Western news has “never found evidence of,” and Ukraine cannot seem to disarm, and you have a fearful citizenry on all sides. As long as the people fear invasion, or retaliation by thugs, the right hand will not care what the left hand is doing. It keeps the Ukrainian citizens from worrying about things like increasing gas, electric, and water prices (estimated at 120% increase total), and the cutting of their wage, government pension, and utility subsidies under their agreement with the IMF to get a financial bailout.

Lastly, it keeps the movements of the interim government off the radar of the people and the West. Ukraine is making moves for integration with Europe, but they are also dissuading pro-Russian and Eastern Ukraine leaning politicians from running for the presidency. Currently, only the corrupt oligarch Tymoshenko and chocolate king Petro Poroshenko are running.

May God help Ukraine.

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